CRE NOI Sensitivity Analysis Calculator
Stress test property value, LTV, and refinance risk
Small changes in NOI and cap rates can create large swings in commercial real estate value. This sensitivity calculator shows how NOI compression and cap-rate expansion affect estimated value, current LTV, and the refinance gap at a target lender LTV.
- ✓Builds a 5-by-5 NOI and cap-rate sensitivity matrix
- ✓Shows estimated value, resulting LTV, and refinance gap by scenario
- ✓Highlights cases where the current loan balance exceeds target refinance proceeds
- ✓Useful for maturity risk, refinance planning, and downside underwriting
| NOI / Cap Rate | 6.00% | 6.50% | 7.00% | 7.50% | 8.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270,000(-10%) | $4,500,000 LTV 55.6% | $650,000 | $4,153,846 LTV 60.2% | $407,692 | $3,857,143 LTV 64.8% | $200,000 | $3,600,000 LTV 69.4% | $20,000 | $3,375,000 LTV 74.1% | -$137,500 |
| $285,000(-5%) | $4,750,000 LTV 52.6% | $825,000 | $4,384,615 LTV 57.0% | $569,231 | $4,071,429 LTV 61.4% | $350,000 | $3,800,000 LTV 65.8% | $160,000 | $3,562,500 LTV 70.2% | -$6,250 |
| $300,000(0%) | $5,000,000 LTV 50.0% | $1,000,000 | $4,615,385 LTV 54.2% | $730,769 | $4,285,714 LTV 58.3% | $500,000 | $4,000,000 LTV 62.5% | $300,000 | $3,750,000 LTV 66.7% | $125,000 |
| $315,000(+5%) | $5,250,000 LTV 47.6% | $1,175,000 | $4,846,154 LTV 51.6% | $892,308 | $4,500,000 LTV 55.6% | $650,000 | $4,200,000 LTV 59.5% | $440,000 | $3,937,500 LTV 63.5% | $256,250 |
| $330,000(+10%) | $5,500,000 LTV 45.5% | $1,350,000 | $5,076,923 LTV 49.2% | $1,053,846 | $4,714,286 LTV 53.0% | $800,000 | $4,400,000 LTV 56.8% | $580,000 | $4,125,000 LTV 60.6% | $387,500 |
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you calculate CRE value from NOI?
A common income approach divides net operating income by the market cap rate. For example, $300,000 of NOI at a 7.00% cap rate implies a value of about $4.29 million.
Why stress both NOI and cap rate?
CRE refinance risk often comes from both directions at once: lower NOI reduces cash flow, while a higher cap rate lowers value. Together they can quickly increase LTV.
What is a refinance gap?
A refinance gap is the difference between the loan amount a new lender would support and the current loan balance. A negative gap means the borrower may need cash-in equity, a paydown, or a different structure.
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This tool is for educational purposes only. Results do not constitute a loan offer, pre-qualification, or guarantee of financing. Consult a licensed financial professional for advice specific to your situation.